Drivers get more reckless when they have to wear seatbelts, because they feel safer. Depending on which data you use, the resulting change in total accidents either underwhelms or swamps the safety effects of seatbelts. This works the other way, too: on icy roads, drivers slow down and drive cautiously, drastically reducing fatalities. This leads to an obvious conclusion: the way to make driving safer is not to mandate safe behavior, but to mandate behavior that feels as unsafe as possible compared to how safe it is. If people think that driving with an eyepatch makes them 300% more likely to get in an accident, but it really only makes them 10% more likely, mandating eyepatches makes driving much safer.
Now, consider: people don't judge lawmakers based on how effective laws are, but on how effective they seem. So lawmakers have no reason to pass a law that, as far as their constituents know, makes driving 300% more fatal. In fact, they have exactly the opposite incentive: to pass the laws that appear the safest, but that cause more accidents so there's a further need for safety-generating legislation.
Public elections are perfectly designed to produce what is literally the worst law imaginable. QED.
Comments (2)
Why assume people act irrationally? The value of time spent driving is on the same order of magnitude as injury from accidents.
Posted by ulrich | January 10, 2008 10:51 PM
Posted on January 10, 2008 22:51
But they're acting on expected values and best guesses. My point is that high expected values reduce actual values because of how people respond to them.
Posted by Byrne | January 11, 2008 10:22 AM
Posted on January 11, 2008 10:22