Today I walked past the Bear Stearns headquarters, and noticed that they have a gaudy Christmas wreath in the lobby. I'm wondering how to interpret this indicator, which is more fine-grained and timely than the Beige Book. My guess is that it's positive: it means they can afford to have a minion put up the wreath without really thinking that this is not the thing to do after losing a few billion dollars on mortgages. Or it's negative: some slightly higher-up Bear Stearns executive has nothing better to do than make lobby-decorating decisions. And since the wreath is still up, both theses are valid if inverted: are they too poor to pay someone to take it down, or too busy to get around to it? Econometrics is a tough subject.
In other news, Barnes & Noble has hired a greeter for their Fifth Avenue location. Is it a bullish indicator that a major player in a highly competitive industry can afford that kind of frivolous expense -- or should I read a recession into the fact that Manhattanites are being treated like Wal-Mart shoppers?
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5:01 PM
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